News and Discussions About the 2010 Olympic Bronze Medalist and World Champion Daisuke Takahashi. |
| | 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS | |
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+14Chris fosse peepsrule Gudrun skato hsuhs miyu Twind ostile17 panther rayhaneh Genki ilica Shyla 18 posters | |
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hsuhs 4F
Number of posts : 2176 Localisation : hsuhs@gishpuppy.com Registration date : 2007-06-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:39 pm | |
| Twind, I'm joining ostile and ilica in their request for the subs, but I, too, wish you take all the time you need, first -- to fully recover from the flu and to take care of your family We can wait. And thank you for all your previous work You make watching the videos so much more fun! It's great you are going to SOI Meanwhile, I put JN men scores through a stats software and found a couple of interesting things. | |
| | | Shyla 4F
Number of posts : 2462 Registration date : 2011-12-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:22 am | |
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| | | hsuhs 4F
Number of posts : 2176 Localisation : hsuhs@gishpuppy.com Registration date : 2007-06-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:34 am | |
| Here's what I found:
The sample of 24 Japan Nationals male skaters is small, (and it's always better for the results generalizability / reliability to have as much data as possible):
I removed the scores of the last 3 short program finishers, because they didn't make it to the free skate. My calculations are thus based on 24 skaters for both SP and FS. For now, I concentrated on Program Component Scores only.
The original scores are posted here: sp: http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2012-2013/fs_e/national/data0103.htm fs: http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2012-2013/fs_e/national/data0105.htm
1. First, just to give a general idea of the PCS scores in both programs, I posted descriptives here:
Descriptives SP: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-4RnQpOYuZ/ Descriptives FS: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-1RnQpOYv0/
There you can see mean scores for each program component, for the entire group of 24 skaters. You can see, for instance, that SS Mean score in short program in this group of skaters is 6.47, with the lowest SS score being 4.80 and the highest SS score 8.90. Etc etc
2. Here's a mean plot per component in short program and free skate: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-4RnQpOYv1/
If you look at each skater's scores, you'll see that TR score is almost always the lowest of the 5 Components. (I don't know if the same is necessarily true for other national / ISU championships).
Yet, the differences between 5 mean Component scores are not significant, even if they look so impressive in the plot. There's no one identifiable component that is solely responsible for a given skater's Program component score.
3. Just a reminder reg how they arrive at PCS for each skater: in SP: SS+TR+PE+CH+IN=PCS (for instance: 8.45+8.10+ 8.35+8.35+8.30=PCS 41.55 (Takahiko's PCS) in FS: Mean PCS Score X 10 = Skater's PCS Score, i.e. SS+TR+PE+CH+IN/5 X 10=PCS (for instance: 9.10+8.70+8.95+9.10+9.00/5 x 10=PSC 89.70 (Yuzuru's PCS score in free skate)
When we look at how individual skaters' scores for each program component relate to the total pool of individual program component scores, we see the following (ckeck the (non-)significance cell in the tables above the plots):
SS: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-1RnQpOYv3/ TR: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-3RnQpOYv5/ PE: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-3RnQpOYv6/ CH: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-4RnQpOYv4/ IN: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-1RnQpOYv2/ Which, according to my interpretation, means for the short program:
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Skating Skills scores There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Transition scores There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Performance / Execution scores There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Choreography / Composition scores There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different short program Interpretation scores
A skater with a low SS (or TR, PE, CH, IN) score is also scoring lower PCS for his short program (which makes sense since we know the judges tend to keep all 5 component scores per skater close to each other).
Free program findings are somewhat different. The findings for free skate SS, TR and IN are similar to those in SP:
There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Skating Skills scores There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Transition scores There's difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Interpretation scores
BUT:
There's little or no difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Performance / Execution scores PE: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-2RnQpOYv7/
There's little or no difference in PCS scores for skaters with different free skate Choreography / Composition scores CH: http://shot.qip.ru/00bqRg-3RnQpOYv8/
The differences in PE and CH in free skate don't translate into differences in fs program component scores.
Which may mean that in JN men FS, PE and CH scores were possibly treated / scored differently than the other 3 Components
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PCS criteria are posted here: http://www.usfsa.org/content/JS08A-Programcompexplan.pdf
That's all for now, folks | |
| | | Shyla 4F
Number of posts : 2462 Registration date : 2011-12-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:25 pm | |
| Fascinating, thank you hsuhs. | |
| | | ilica 3A
Number of posts : 1283 Registration date : 2012-08-24
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:45 am | |
| Hsuhs, you have very... complicated hobby. It's still New Years Eve here, so I don't feel in form enough to analyze this , but it sounds interesting. Morozombie at the end of the year ~~ http://morozombie.blogspot.com/2012/12/a-last-postof-2012.html#more Yes!!! Dai's earth-shattering performance has finally convinced him/her! ...a perfect way to end the year... Happy New Year everybody!!! | |
| | | hsuhs 4F
Number of posts : 2176 Localisation : hsuhs@gishpuppy.com Registration date : 2007-06-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:07 am | |
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| | | fosse 2A
Number of posts : 632 Registration date : 2010-04-04
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:08 am | |
| FS no commentary ver. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TwjZhIwacI am still overwhelmed by the performance. Thank you Shae-lynne and Thank you Technical caller at nationals~! (I think the TC helped Daisuke perform the FS at nationals.) And Happy New Year everybody~! | |
| | | ilica 3A
Number of posts : 1283 Registration date : 2012-08-24
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:45 am | |
| Special Guest - Stephane Lambiel, MOI 2012 ~~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQEHQZ3oZS0 - fosse wrote:
- Thank you Technical caller at nationals~!
(I think the TC helped Daisuke perform the FS at nationals.) You think? I am still closer to kill, than to thank, him/her. | |
| | | fosse 2A
Number of posts : 632 Registration date : 2010-04-04
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:11 am | |
| - Quote :
- You think? I am still closer to kill, than to thank, him/her.
Me, too. But I guessed what Daisuke most needed was motivation after winning long waited GPF title, the TC gave him the motivation after SP. It was funny, was't it? The performance and the audience & skating fans & media's reations said everything. And Why judges didn't give Daisuke PCS100 Yes, 96 points were huge but compared others..umm..his pcs under mark, either. at least they gave him above 99points. | |
| | | ilica 3A
Number of posts : 1283 Registration date : 2012-08-24
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:14 am | |
| You may be right, fosse, with a higher SP score, Dai might not have been motivated enough. I still cannot believe what he delivered, two quads (thank you TC ), two 3As, 3+3... - fosse wrote:
- And Why judges didn't give Daisuke PCS100
Don't be too greedy. Can you imagine the screams "even Patrick Chan doesn't have 10s in SS", "and what about Transitions"? But 99 would be nice | |
| | | let`s talk 2A
Number of posts : 501 Registration date : 2011-07-14
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:07 pm | |
| - hsuhs wrote:
- The differences in PE and CH in free skate don't translate into differences in fs program component scores.
Which may mean that in JN men FS, PE and CH scores were possibly treated / scored differently than the other 3 Components
So, basically you are saying they lowballed PE and CH, the criteria which our Dai is good at, and which the audience appreciate the most. | |
| | | Shyla 4F
Number of posts : 2462 Registration date : 2011-12-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:46 pm | |
| - ilica wrote:
- Special Guest - Stephane Lambiel, MOI 2012 ~~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQEHQZ3oZS0
Thank you ilica. Beautifully skated program. Did you notice he did only one jump. The thing is with Stephane he does not need a lot of jumps in his programs because his skating, artistry and choreography is first rate. | |
| | | Shyla 4F
Number of posts : 2462 Registration date : 2011-12-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:09 pm | |
| - fosse wrote:
- FS no commentary ver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TwjZhIwac
I am still overwhelmed by the performance.
Thank you Shae-lynne and Thank you Technical caller at nationals~! (I think the TC helped Daisuke perform the FS at nationals.)
And Happy New Year everybody~! Thank you Fosse. I agree about Dai's performance I have watched it so many times now and it is nice to have a version with no commentary. Yay! | |
| | | hsuhs 4F
Number of posts : 2176 Localisation : hsuhs@gishpuppy.com Registration date : 2007-06-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Sat Jan 05, 2013 1:55 am | |
| - let`s talk wrote:
- So, basically you are saying they lowballed PE and CH, the criteria which our Dai is good at, and which the audience appreciate the most.
Hard to tell what exactly happened there. Daisuke had the highest (of the entire group) PE and CH marks, those definitely contributed to his top PCSscore. But if we look at some other skaters scores: http://www.jsfresults.com/National/2012-2013/fs_e/national/data0105.htmwe see, for instance, that: Oda and Mura had exact same PCS, while Mura's PE and CH marks (8.45 and 8.40) came out higher than Oda's (PE 8.30 and CH 8.35). Kawahara scored an overall higher, than Hattori's, PCS, with a lower, than Hattori, CH score. Nakamura's PE score (7.80) is higher than Machida's (7.65), but his PCS isn't. Etc etc. The same kind of 'inconsistency' is present in the scoring of the other 3 components as well, yet they end up making a difference in the overall PCScores, while PE and CH do not. (My findings for non-factored (i.e. not multiplied by 2) FS PCS are the same as for the factored ones I posted earlier). It can be argued that someone with weak skating skills can still have a beautiful complex choreo, or someone who lacks transitions, is able to produce a strong performance. All that seems possible. But how come there are no issues with the SP scores? The judges are the same in both programs. Another possible argument might be that PE and CH are rather 'vague' components. But so is IN. So I don't know what to make out of this. | |
| | | ilica 3A
Number of posts : 1283 Registration date : 2012-08-24
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:57 pm | |
| - hsuhs wrote:
- The differences in PE and CH in free skate don't translate into differences in fs program component scores.
Which may mean that in JN men FS, PE and CH scores were possibly treated / scored differently than the other 3 Components Maybe this means that only PE and CH were actually judged? The rest of the components are somehow fixed, "this skater is a 7.5 points SS skater, he has 7.2 worthy TR, and his IN is on 7.6 level (since PChan has become the best "interpretor" it's no longer easy to say what "Interpretation" means, so better to be careful ) The only components the judges felt free to evaluate were those two, "I liked this Choreography, and I loved this Performance". But because they were only a little anomalies in the fixed patterns, they didn't effect the total PCS score. SS, TR, IN on the other hand, as parts of the pattern, were more reflected in total score. The anomaly didn't occur in the Short Program because usually it is scored more cautiously. The judges don't let their impressions take over the fixed opinions. That's my interpretation. I'm sure no one can see much sense in it. - Shyla wrote:
- Beautifully skated program. Did you notice he did only one jump. The thing is with Stephane
he does not need a lot of jumps in his programs because his skating, artistry and choreography is first rate. So true! | |
| | | hsuhs 4F
Number of posts : 2176 Localisation : hsuhs@gishpuppy.com Registration date : 2007-06-10
| Subject: Re: 2012 JAPAN NATIONALS Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:28 am | |
| - ilica wrote:
- Maybe this means that only PE and CH were actually judged?
The rest of the components are somehow fixed, "this skater is a 7.5 points SS skater, he has 7.2 worthy TR, and his IN is on 7.6 level (since PChan has become the best "interpretor" it's no longer easy to say what "Interpretation" means, so better to be careful ) The only components the judges felt free to evaluate were those two, "I liked this Choreography, and I loved this Performance". But because they were only a little anomalies in the fixed patterns, they didn't effect the total PCS score. SS, TR, IN on the other hand, as parts of the pattern, were more reflected in total score.
The anomaly didn't occur in the Short Program because usually it is scored more cautiously. The judges don't let their impressions take over the fixed opinions.
That's my interpretation. I'm sure no one can see much sense in it. I think I do, ilica. You mean, the 5 components are divided in 2 groups. The first group is used to 'place' the skaters, the second one is used to exercise the freedom of expression. | |
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